Forecast (Holt linear trend)
Holt's linear trend method - level + trend (no seasonality). Two smoothing parameters: alpha (level) and beta (trend). Forecast extrapolates as a straight line from the last fitted level along the last fitted trend, so it grows or shrinks linearly with horizon. Use this when your series has a persistent up/down trend but no seasonal cycle (e.g. a SaaS MRR climb, a deflating cohort retention curve).
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Daily probe success ratio, last 30 days. Last probed 2026-10-06.
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